|Kaj Sotala||# Posted on 20.4.2008 at 17.32|
[quote=Matti Hiltunen]Minusta 14 tapaa tienata ilman tekijänoikeuksia on hieman harhaanjohtava ilmaisu, koska tavat tienata ilman tekijänoikeuksia eivät poikkea juurikaan tavoista tienata tekijänoikeuksien kanssa, sillä vaikka meillä nämä tekijänoikeudet on, ei niitä yksittäisen kuluttajan tasolla juurikaan noudateta. Tästä huolimatta (todennäköisestä tämän seurauksena) viihdeteollisuus elää, voi hyvin ja kasvaa.[/quote]
Tämä on totta.
Tarkastelin tuoreessa esseessäni Copyright: the Societal Side eri viihteenalojen nykytilannetta:
Quote:We can try to somewhat estimate the impact of legalizing file-sharing by looking at how different parts of the entertainment industry have reacted to piracy becoming more widespread. Obviously there are more variables than just the popularity of piracy, and a considerable part of the populace hasn’t gotten on the pirate bandwagon yet, but this should still be useful – after all, piracy is likely to be one of the biggest factors influencing sales, even now.
* Movies: Doing quite well, actually. According to a report by the Motion Picture Association of America, the box office in 2007 was $9.629 billion (up 2.161 billion from 2001 and 5.066 billion from 1992) in the US and $26.7 billion (up 10 billion from 2001) internationally – making it a record year on both fronts!
* Music: CD sales are definitely down. On the other hand, concert sales are up. An interesting article in Prospect Magazine, for instance, reports that attendance at arena rock shows grew by 11 per cent in Britain in 2006, and that the prices for concerts have gone up worldwide, at best over tenfold compared to what they were in 1980. Artists are getting an increasing share of their income from live appearances.
Online sales of music in services such as iTune are also seeing moderate growth, though the growth is already slowing and is very unlikely to reach the same levels as CD sales once did.
* Computer software: This is effectively two different fields: utility software, such as operating systems, word and image processors, and computer games. Utility software has so far been partially unaffected by piracy because large corporations can’t just use pirated software like private people can: somebody will inevitably report them and they’ll end up paying large fines. This risk would presumably go away if file-sharing was legalized. This doesn’t seem too worrying, however, because of the large variety of good open source programs available, the fact that user support is a good way to earn from software even if nobody paid for the software itself, and that special-purpose software that doesn’t have an open source equivalent can always be either ordered or made internally by the interests requiring it.
Computer games, as a medium that’s been digital from the very beginning, are probably among the most pirated varieties of entertainment you can find. But regardless, they have only continued to grow as time has passed, even actively driving home computers to become more powerful. It seems likely that enough people will keep buying them to keep them profitable even if they can be acquired for free – for that’s the case already.
* Books: A brief Google gave me a bunch of reports by the American Association of Publishers, which seem to indicate that the book industry has been seeing steady growth since at least 2005. I wonder what more long-term trends look like – one would imagine that the book lobby would have been hit the hardest in the recent decades, as they are not only suffering from piracy, but also the fact that Internet and computer gaming are actively competing for the readers’ attention.
* Comics: In the comments of an LJ post, I was informed that the comic book industry is at one of the lowest points of its existence. On the other hand, some estimates say that there are between 15,000 to 36,000 webcomics around, more or less regularly updated, and several webcomic authors are making a living off it. Japanese manga has also seen explosive growth in the last decade (still growing in Finland), despite the fact that it’s often been floating around the net in scanned and translated form for years before it’s even officially made available in the West in the first place.
* Others: Did I miss any?
If we go by these figures, things look promising – all the industries have had at least parts which have grown in the recent one or two decades, despite the file-sharing explosion that has occurred during that time. It looks nowhere certain that a legalization of file-sharing, or maybe even a general abolishment of copyright, would hurt society.